🚩The Hidden Advantage That Got Me Out of the Weeds

I’ll never forget the day I realized I was spending more time in Excel sheets than actually leading my team.

I’d convinced myself that if I just got the numbers perfect…every formula, every forecast…then the strategy would take care of itself.

But it didn’t.

I was working harder than ever, but I was stuck in the weeds…lost in the details, missing the bigger picture.

That’s when I stumbled onto something that changed everything: mental models.

They’re simple yet powerful thinking tools that help you understand problems, make better decisions, and see patterns others miss.

Leaders like Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, and Charlie Munger have used them to build game-changing companies.

Why? Because mental models help you think clearly, simplify complexity, and focus on what matters most.

Here are the five mental models that helped me get unstuck, and can help you lead smarter too:

1. The 80/20 Rule
20 percent of your decisions drive 80 percent of your results.
Focus on the vital few, not the trivial many.
Cut meetings that waste time.
Double down on the high-impact work.
Let go of the rest.

2. First Principles
Break problems down to their core truths.
Don’t accept “we’ve always done it this way.”
Test every assumption.
Build solutions from the ground up.
Focus on what must be true, not what’s easy.

3. Second-Order Effects
Don’t stop at the immediate results.
Map out the ripple effects on your team, culture, and goals.
Think six to twelve months ahead.
Plan for unintended consequences.
Use feedback loops to stay on track.

4. Decision Trees
Map out every possible outcome before you act.
Identify the critical decision points.
Calculate the risk-reward ratio.
Take the emotion out of choices.
Set clear action steps so you’re never paralyzed.

5. Inversion
Start with the worst-case scenario.
Ask yourself, “How could this fail?”
Work backward to prevent each risk.
Build guardrails that keep you on track.
Design success by removing errors.

I’ll never forget the day I was promoted to manage a team of five people I’d worked alongside for years.

I’d just been handed a half-finished project that someone else had started, and I felt like I was in over my head.

One day I was their peer. The next day I was in charge.

Suddenly, every decision felt heavy.
Every meeting felt awkward.
Every mistake felt magnified.

I was stuck in the weeds, buried in old plans and someone else’s way of doing things.

First Principles is a mental model that teaches you to strip problems down to the core truths, challenge every assumption, and rebuild solutions from scratch.

Instead of just continuing the old project plan, I asked:

• What do we actually need to achieve?

• What resources do we really have?

• What’s getting in the way?

I challenged the idea that we had to follow the old process.
I tested assumptions that didn’t make sense anymore.
I rebuilt the project plan from the ground up, tailored to our team’s strengths.

The difference was night and day.
We got buy-in.
We got clarity.
We actually delivered.

First Principles got me unstuck and helped me lead a team that trusted me.

If you’ve ever felt trapped in someone else’s plan or unsure how to lead a new team, First Principles can be your way out, too.

Strategy is a game of mental models. Most people play it wrong.

Don’t be most people.

Which mental model has made the biggest difference for you?

If you’ve ever felt stuck, buried in tasks but not actually moving forward, these mental models can be your way out.

They were for me.

Strategy is a game of mental models. Most people play it wrong.

Don’t be most people.

Which mental model has made the biggest difference for you?

Until next time,

Justin

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